Lethal Buried Assumptions in Tech Project Timeline Estimation
Technology project timeline estimation is the lifeblood of all information technology and related consulting efforts. However, several buried assumptions invisibly affect the estimation process and can cause projects to miss timelines and go over budget. Being aware of these buried assumptions allows padding for the respective risks, but nothing will prevent the risks from existing.
The most dangerous buried assumptions occur in the following loop:
1. Changing project requirements at any time after the estimate is made will not cause an overage. This is the most obvious assumption and yet it remains buried to most customers because of the second most dangerous buried assumption.changes.
2. Customers or clients develop a false sense of security about the severity or processes necessary to implement change requests. Without spreading FUD, information technology directors and management must make efforts to give customers accurate information about how long certain changes may take, and the authentic impact expected to the schedule as a result. Attempting to cover up for slips in the schedule from events in #1 will only increase the effect of any actual timeline slippage on customer retention and satisfaction.
3. The false sense of security from the customer’s side reinforces the creation of new project requirements outside of the original estimation. As customers become more confident that their needs can be met at any time, they continue to pile onto everyone’s now unrealistic expectations with more fuel for the fire in the form of additional changes. These additional changes cause the timeline buried assumptions to loop again starting at #1.
Without a hardline approach that may cost some initial customer satisfaction, the long-term outcome of this loop is to geometrically grow the cost and delays involved in future projects until the point of repeated project delivery failures (once funds and time are exhausted).